On another key day for Rachel Reeves, what might she be saying in her Spring Statement?

17 hours ago

Emer MoreauBusiness reporter Chancellor Rachel Reeves will give an update on her plans for the UK economy, when she delivers the Spring Statement on Tuesday.

The latest estimates for growth, inflation, unemployment, government spending and tax income over the next few years will be published alongside the statement.

However, the forecasts will not take into account any potential impact from the jump in oil prices triggered by the strikes on Iran.

Although it is not a major event like the Budget, the Spring Statement can influence government decisions on whether to raise or cut taxes and spending in the future. What is the Spring Statement and why does it matter? The Spring Statement outlines the latest economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

These will be published in full after Reeves has delivered her speech in the Commons.

The OBR is the independent body that monitors the government's spending plans and performance.

It produces forecasts twice a year.

These give an indication of how the economy is expected to perform.

However, this year's Spring Statement will not contain an official assessment of whether the government is likely to meet its tax and spending rules.

These assessments will now only be published at the time of the Budget.

The two main rules are: Not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending by the end of this parliament To get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament At the time of November's Budget, the OBR said Reeves would meet the first measure with £21.

7bn in reserve - an amount often referred to as "headroom".

These figures matter because the government may cut spending or raise taxes if it is at risk of not meeting its rules.

Despite the lack of an official "headroom" figure from the OBR on Tuesday, independent economists are still expected to produce their own assessments of the government's finances.

The latest OBR report is expected to include policy changes announced since the Budget.

These include the easing of inheritance tax rules on farms, changes to business rates on pubs, and increased spending in education on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). When is the Spring Statement?

The 2026 Spring Statement will take place on Tuesday 3 March.

We don't know exactly what time Reeves will begin her speech in the Commons, but it is likely to be shortly after midday.

When Reeves finishes speaking, the Treasury will publish the OBR's forecast.

The OBR is independent of the government and usually publishes its own reports.

However, last year the OBR's analysis was released mistakenly before the chancellor had delivered her Budget statement in the House of Commons.

This error led to the resignation of the OBR's chairman, Richard Hughes.

Following a security review, the government has said the OBR's March forecast will be published by the Treasury using its gov.

After Reeves has spoken, the opposition, likely to be either Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch or shadow chancellor Mel Stride, will respond.

What might be in the Spring Statement?

Reeves is not expected to announce any major policy decisions such as changes to taxes or spending.

The chancellor only wants to make major announcements once a year, normally at the autumn Budget. The government wants to avoid constant waves of speculation over tax and spending measures. Uncertainty over possible measures in last autumn's Budget has been blamed for affecting both businesses and households However, changes could still be announced.

Last year's statement confirmed details of changes to benefits, although some of these were reversed later in the year.

How is the UK economy doing?

When the Labour government took power in July 2024, it made boosting economic growth its top priority.

However, many economists and politicians are concerned that the UK economy is not growing fast enough.

GDP - a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments, and people in a country - grew by 0.

1% in the last three months of 2025, which was slightly less than expected.

3% over the whole of the year.

In November, the OBR forecast the economy would grow by 1.

4% in 2026, but analysts now expect this to be revised lower.

Inflation - the rate at which prices are rising - has cooled after peaking at 11.

1% in October 2022, but it is still above the Bank of England's target of 2%.

Prices rose by 3% in the year to January, the lowest inflation rate since March 2025.

This has led analysts to expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 3.

However, if the jump in oil prices seen after strikes on Iran is sustained, this could push up fuel prices and affect the cost of other goods such as food.

If so, this could make the Bank less willing to cut rates.

"Is there more to do?

Absolutely. But we've created the conditions for growth and I am confident this will be the year we will see the results of that," she said. Business owners have consistently complained about the rising tax burden, with particular concerns about how the chancellor's hike in employer National Insurance contributions, which took effect last April, drove up the cost of hiring for firms