Donald Trump says India has agreed to replace Russian oil with US supplies — and maybe even Venezuelan.

DW asks whether the Latin American producer can realistically meet New Delhi's needs.

What oil deal have the US, India agreed?

After months of pressure over India's purchases of discounted Russian and sanctioned Iranian crude, New Delhi appears to have bowed to US President Donald Trump's demand by agreeing to phase out Russian oil imports and shift toward buying more barrels from the United States — and potentially Venezuela.

Trump said Monday on his Truth Social platform that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi planned to "stop buying Russian oil," which the US president said would help end the war in Ukraine.

Russia's energy revenues — which have financed the conflict — fell by a fifth last year, the British Financial Times daily reported last week, adding to the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve a peace deal.

Trump said India could buy $500 billion (€424 billion) worth ‌of US energy and coal, along with technology, agricultural and other products.

He framed the move as a part of a broader trade deal under which the US would slash its tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, while India would cut its tariffs on US products to zero.

New Delhi has yet to confirm this.

The US tariff rate on India had been among the world's highest after Trump in August, 2025 imposed an extra 25% levy on Indian goods as punishment for India's oil purchases from Russia sinceMoscow's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The White House said the additional tariff would now be scrapped.

India's Modi was one of the first world leaders to meet Trump after the US president's return to the White House last year Image: Jim Watson/AFP Modi confirmed the tariff cut on the social platform X but made no mention of the oil deal.

But the Reuters news agency cited an unnamed Indian government official as saying that US petroleum supplies were among the goods included in the deal.

New Delhi has already begun cutting its reliance on Russian crude following US sanctions on oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil.

Last week, Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency that shipments had dropped by nearly a third to 1.

3 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent weeks.

He said Indian oil firms were keen to increase imports from Canada and the US as part of a strategy to diversify supplies across more than 40 countries.

How quickly can Russian oil be replaced by US sources?

Fully replacing Russian oil imports with US crude is likely to take several months to years, as Russian supplies make up around a quarter of the roughly 5 million bpd India imports.

According to estimates from energy-tracking firm Kpler published last year, a complete pivot would raise India's oil import bill by $9 to $11 billion annually, as Russian oil imports are heavily discounted, while US crude is more expensive.

The tariff and sanctions threat has already spurred India to step up its purchases of US oil.

The Times of India, an English--language daily, reported last month that US crude imports rose 92% from April to November last year.

1 million tons of oil India imported, 13 million tons came from US sources, compared to 7.

1 million in the same period in 2024.

As the world's largest oil producer, the US has plenty to supply.

But moving large volumes of US crude to India won't be straightforward.

The voyage takes more than six weeks, ties up tankers on one of the world's longest oil routes and depends on a US Gulf Coast export system that is already running near capacity.

Trump's other second-term energy deal could also mean India competing with the European Union for US supplies.

As part of its tariff deal with Trump, the EU agreed in July to spend $750 billion through 2028 on procuring US oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear energy products.

Indian refineries are optimized for heavier, sour Russian Urals crude, which is turned into diesel and jet fuel to match domestic demand.

Switching to lighter, sweeter US crudes would require operational tweaks that could take months.

Venezuela's oil output has been stymied by years of underinvestment, corruption and US sanctions Image: Diego Giudice/IMAGO Can Venezuela ramp up oil supplies to meet India's demand?

Trump's mention of Venezuela could see India potentially help to revive the Latin American nation's oil sector, which the US has effectively taken control of following the capture of longtime leader Nicolas Maduro last month.

Venezuela's interim government has already cut a deal with Washington to sell up to 50 million barrels of crude to US refiners and is reforming energy laws to attract foreign investment.

India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude oil until March last year, when Trump levied a 25% tariff on nations conducting oil trade with Caracas.

Venezuela mostly pumps heavy, sulfur‑rich crude — the kind of dense, tar‑like oil that India's refineries are set up to run efficiently.

But deliveries could be impacted by lingering sanctions as well as similar logistical hurdles and increased costs from moving oil from the other side of the world.

With Venezuela's oil output still hovering around 900,000 bpd — a fraction of the 3 to 4 million barrels it produced in the early 2000s — it will take years, stable politics and huge investments to ramp up supplies to satisfy India's demand.

Another issue is price, as Venezuela sold its oil to Asian refineries at a steep discount due to US sanctions.

What could be the impact on global oil supply?

As any rerouting of India's oil imports to the US and possibly Venezuelan sources will likely be a slow process, the impact on global oil supplies is likely to be limited and gradual.

India would need to honor existing contracts for Russian crude cargoes already booked and in transit.

Often, those cargoes have up to 90-day lead times, requiring a gradual winddown over several months to avoid disruptions and penalties.

China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, is predicted to further ramp up its purchases, along with Turkey and certain African nations.

Global oil flows remain near balanced to modestly oversupplied, with members ofOPEC+ that account for nearly half of global crude output, increasing output over the past year.

US shale, meanwhile, and emerging sources such as Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, are helping achieve a global oil surplus, the International Energy Agency (IEA) wrote in a report last month.

These additional sources provide an ample buffer against supply disruptions.

But that redundancy could be quickly erased if India were to make a sudden halt to Russian supplies.

Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey

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